ABSTRACT
Background Molnupiravir was licensed for treating high-risk patients with COVID-19 based on data from unvaccinated adults. AGILE CST-2 (NCT04746183) Phase II reports safety and virological efficacy of molnupiravir in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Methods Adult out-patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection within five days of symptom onset were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive molnupiravir (800mg twice daily for five days) or placebo. The primary outcome was time to swab PCR-negativity, compared using a Bayesian model for estimating the probability of a superior virological response (Hazard Ratio>1) for molnupiravir over placebo. Secondary outcomes included change in viral titre at day 5, safety and tolerability, clinical progression and patient reported outcome measures. We analysed outcomes after the last participant reached day 29. Findings Of 180 participants randomised (90 molnupiravir, 90 placebo), 50% were vaccinated. Infections with SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta (40%), Alpha (21%), Omicron (21%) and EU1 (16%) were represented. The median time to negative-PCR was 8 versus 11 days for molnupiravir and placebo (HR=1.30, 95% CrI 0.92-1.71, p=0.7 by Logrank and p=0.03 by Breslow-Gehan tests). Although small numbers precluded subgroup analysis, no obvious differences were observed between vaccinated and unvaccinated participants. Using a two-point prior the probability of molnupiravir being superior to placebo (HR>1) was 75.4%, which was just below our defined threshold of 80% for establishing superiority. Using an uninformative continuous prior, the probability of HR>1 was 94.7%. As an exploratory analysis, the change in viral titre on day 5 (end of treatment) was significantly greater with molnupiravir compared with placebo. A total of 4 participants reported severe adverse events (grade 3+), 3 of whom were in the placebo arm. Interpretation We found molnupiravir to be well-tolerated, with evidence for high probability of antiviral efficacy in a population of vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals infected with a broad range of viral variants.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
Understanding the genetic risk and mechanisms through which SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes and comorbidities interact to impact acute and long-term sequelae is essential if we are to reduce the ongoing health burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we use a de novo protein diffusion network analysis coupled with tissue-specific gene regulatory networks, to examine putative mechanisms for associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes and comorbidities. Our approach identifies a shared genetic aetiology and molecular mechanisms for known and previously unknown comorbidities of SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes. Additionally, genomic variants, genes and biological pathways that provide putative causal mechanisms connecting inherited risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and coronary artery disease and Parkinson’s disease are identified for the first time. Our findings provide an in depth understanding of genetic impacts on traits that collectively alter an individual’s predisposition to acute and post-acute SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes. The existence of complex inter-relationships between the comorbidities we identify raises the possibility of a much greater post-acute burden arising from SARS-CoV-2 infection if this genetic predisposition is realised.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
Background Cancer and systemic anti-cancer treatment (SACT) have been identified as possible risk factors for infection and related severe illness associated with SARS-CoV-2 virus as a consequence of immune suppression. The Scottish COVID CAncer iMmunity Prevalence (SCCAMP) study aims to characterise the incidence and outcomes of SARS-Cov-2 infection in patients undergoing active anti-cancer treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic and their antibody response following vaccination. Patients and Methods Eligible patients were those attending secondary care for active anti-cancer treatment for a solid tumour. Blood samples were taken for total SARS-CoV-2 antibody assay (Siemens) at baseline and after 1.5, 3, 6 and 12 months. Data on COVID-19 infection, vaccination, cancer type, treatment and outcome was obtained from routine electronic health records. Results The study recruited 766 eligible participants between 28th May 2020 and 31st October 2021. The median age was 62.7 years, and 66.5% were female. Most received cytotoxic chemotherapy (79%), with the remaining 14% receiving immunotherapy and 7% receiving another form of anti-cancer therapy (radiotherapy, other systemic anti-cancer treatment). 48 (6.3%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR during the study period. The overall infection rate matched that of the age-matched local general population until May 2021, after which population levels appeared higher. Antibody testing detected additional evidence of infection prior to vaccination, taking the total number to 58 (7.6%). There was no significant difference in SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive test rates based on type of anti-cancer treatment. Mortality proportion was similar between those who died within 90 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR and those with no positive PCR (10.4% vs 10.6%). Death from all causes was lowest among vaccinated patients, and of the patients who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR at any time, all of those who died during the study period were unvaccinated. Multivariate analysis correcting for age, gender, socioeconomic status, comorbidities and number of previous medications revealed that vaccination was associated with a significantly lower infection rate regardless of treatment with chemotherapy or immunotherapy with hazard ratios of 0.307 (95% CI 0.144-0.6548) or 0.314 (95% CI 0.041-2.367) in vaccinated patients respectively. Where antibody data was available, 96.3% of patients successfully raised SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at a time point after vaccination. This was unaffected by treatment type. Conclusion SCCAMP provides real-world evidence that patients with cancer undergoing SACT have a high antibody response and protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection following COVID-19 vaccination.
Subject(s)
Neoplasms , COVID-19 , Neoplasms, Second PrimaryABSTRACT
Understanding the trends in causes of death for different diseases during the current COVID-19 pandemic is important to determine whether there are excess deaths beyond what is normally expected. Using the most recent report from National Records Scotland (NRS) on 29 April 2020, we examined the percentage difference in crude numbers of deaths in 2020 compared to the average for 2015-2019 by week of death within calendar year. To determine if trends were similar, suggesting underreporting/underdiagnosed COVID-19 related deaths, we also looked at the trends in % differences for cardiovascular disease deaths. From the first 17 weeks' of data, we found a peak in excess deaths between weeks 14 of 2020, about four weeks after the first case in Scotland was detected on 1 March 2020-- but by week 17 these excesses had diminished around the time lockdown in the UK began. Similar observations were seen for cardiovascular disease-related deaths. These observations suggest that the short-term increase in excess cancer and cardiovascular deaths might be associated with undetected/unconfirmed deaths related to COVID-19. Both of these conditions make patients more susceptible to infection and lack of widespread access to testing for COVID-19 are likely to have resulted in under-estimation of COVID-19 mortality. These data further suggest that the cumulative toll of COVID-19 on mortality is likely undercounted. More detailed analysis is needed to determine if these excesses were directly or indirectly related to COVID-19. Disease specific mortality will need constant monitoring for the foreseeable future as changes occur in increasing capacity and access to testing, reporting criteria, changes to health services and different measures are implemented to control the spread of the COVID-19. Multidisciplinary, multi-institutional, national and international collaborations for complementary and population specific data analysis is required to respond and mitigate adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and to inform planning for future pandemics.